In recent times, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a decrease in whale activity across major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to Santiment’s latest analysis, transactions valued at over $100k have seen a noticeable drop. For example, Bitcoin went from 115.1k high-value transactions during March 13-19 to just 60.2k by August 21-27. Ethereum followed a similar pattern, decreasing from 115.1k to 31.8k over the same period. This decline in whale transactions may raise concerns, but it does not necessarily indicate a bearish outlook.
Whale behavior often corresponds with periods of market volatility, where large players move assets to take advantage of price swings. The lower transaction volumes could signify a phase of market consolidation or a temporary lull in volatility rather than a signal of an impending downturn. Santiment suggests that top addresses are accumulating assets, implying strategic positioning for future market movements. Instead of exiting the market, whales may be adopting a more cautious and calculated approach, accumulating assets in anticipation of potential price appreciation.
Recent analysis from QCP Capital reveals that Bitcoin ended August down 8.6%, struggling to recover from the ‘BOJ crash’ early in the month and failing to surpass the 65k mark. Ethereum faced an even greater decline, plummeting by over 22% during the same period, with alleged selling by Jump Trading exacerbating its downfall. Looking ahead, historical trends point towards a bearish September, with six out of the last seven closing in the red and an average return of approximately 4.5%. If this trend continues, BTC could drop to $55k. However, strong support is expected around $54k, a level that sparked a rebound back in July.
Despite recent market turbulence, economic data like Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports are unlikely to have a significant influence on crypto prices. Macro data’s effect on the market has been diminishing, indicating that this week’s economic reports may not cause significant fluctuations in crypto asset prices.